War Forecasting Tool

forecast-wp

If I had a nickel for every time someone in the clan asked on clan chat:

“Wry, who should I hit?”

I would have $19 and 85 cents.  LOL.  Seriously though, its like every war right?  And its a complex question as to answer.  Here is just one example:

A mid level TH10 in your clan wants to know if they should hit an Enemy TH10 base that is 1 starred.  Some color.  Your clan has 1 TH10 attack left.  There are 4 TH9 bases still open and 5 TH9 attacks with a shortage of TH8 attacks versus open bases.

I don’t know about you, but as I throw all those variables around in my head it turns to jelly.  I know its an important question — but to accurately answer is a bugger.  Till now.

I finally got around to putting into excel what I did on paper to answer the above.  Here is a link to the excel file:

Let me what you though how it works.   Basically whenever you want to get a snapshot “Forecast” of your current war you do the following:

  1. Open the XLS (so far so good)
  2. Go to the “Raw Data” tab
    1. Pull up the war in game (man this is simple)
    2. Key in the current score for you and the enemy (yellow cells; yellow cells are the only ones you key data into)
    3. Pull up your war map and then for each TH Level
      1. Key in the starting base # and the ending base # (you only need to do this once).  It’s really helpful for later snapshots when the destroyed bases look so similar.
      2. Key in # of attacks left at that TH level
      3. Key in # of bases left with 0 stars, 1 star, and 2 stars on them
    4. Repeat step “C” for the enemy war map
  3. Now go to the “Forecast” Tag
    1. Look at the first set of tables under “Our Defense vs Their Offense”.  White cells are calculated or pulled from the “Raw Data” tab.  You are just going to forecast now “Atks used by level and stars produced.
      1. Starting with TH10, look at the “Bases with …” stars; the total open; and “Atks Left” columns.  Decide how many attacks (in your head) you are going to use on which bases and what number of new stars that will produce.   Key that into “Atks Used” and “New Stars” yellow cells.  Note, if you use less attacks than available the remainder carries down to the next TH level in the “Hit Downs” left.
      2. Now look at TH9.
        1. First I would apply the hit down attacks as they have higher odds of 3 starring.
        2. Next apply the Attacks left to any remaining bases.  As with TH10 you have to make a judgment call here if you will attack TH9 that are 2 starred.  Depends how the war is flowing.
        3. As with TH10 any attacks left over “Atks Left” + “HitDowns Left” will flow down to the “HitDowns Left” of the next TH level.
      3. Repeat for TH8, TH7.  If the bases are closed out in a level you don’t need to look at it any more.
    2. Repeat 3.A for the “Their Defense vs Our Offense” section.

Takes about 3-5 minutes to update the model.  Once you have it updated you have a pretty fact based answer to how many attacks, by TH level, should be hitting down.  This in turn allows you to tell each TH level to set aside the top X open bases (the hit down number) at a TH level for hit down — focusing their attacks on bases that are easier.

We found it to be very helpful in our wars so far.  Here is a video of me walking through the sheet in a bit more detail.

Hope it helps.

-Wry

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